Final Third: Arsenal or Manchester City?

The race for the English Premier League title remains mathematically the same, but has changed from a psychological perspective. Manchester City is still six points behind league leaders Arsenal, the same gap as the previous week. However, momentum seems to be favoring City following their dramatic victory at Anfield Stadium.

City is expected to lose points at Liverpool's home ground, Anfield Stadium. This prediction held true until the 83rd minute, when Erling Haaland and his teammates managed to turn the game around by the final whistle. City snatched a 2-1 victory after initially falling behind at the notoriously intimidating stadium, Monday (9/2/2026 WIB).

Arsenal had managed to extend their lead to nine points the day before. Thanks to an outstanding result at Anfield, the team coached by manager Pep Guardiola has reduced the gap to six points. City is not actually benefiting from the point calculations. They still trail by the same number of points with fewer matches remaining.

The Opta Analyst supercomputer also does not see anything special about City's victory. They continue to heavily favor Arsenal to win the league. Arsenal's chances of winning stand at 90.1 percent, while City is given only an 8.2 percent chance. The league has entered the final third of the schedule, with 13 matches remaining.

It is reasonable that the increase in City's chances is only slightly higher in that simulation, rising by 2.3 percent from the previous week. The prediction is based solely on mathematical calculations. However, according to former City goalkeeper Joe Hart, the most important aspect of the resurgence at Anfield is the psychological state of the team. "I think they believe again, they are in the title race," said Hart.

City seems to be experiencing a reincarnation at Anfield. The morale of the squad is certainly lifted by their first away victory in the league during 2026. They had previously been overshadowed by a trend of three consecutive failures to win away this year. Without hesitation, City reversed that momentum at the home ground of the defending champions.

Moreover, City can perform more freely as they are only considered the underdog. The significant pressure is actually on Arsenal, which has been the favorite since the first half of the season. Additionally, history favors City, which has always won the title race against Arsenal in the last two occasions, in the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons.

"The gap (with Arsenal) is indeed large, but anything can still happen. Thirteen matches is a lot, not to mention the FA Cup, the English League Cup final, and the upcoming Champions League. Injuries can occur at any time. So all we can do is keep applying pressure on Arsenal and take advantage if they let their guard down," said Guardiola.

Guardiola looks ahead to the final third of the season with significant momentum. In addition to new signings in the January transfer window with the arrival of defender Marc Guehi and forward Antoine Semenyo, many players are stepping up to take on larger roles. Wing-back Nico O’Reilly is starting to gain trust and comfort in the midfield position, while forward Omar Marmoush is becoming increasingly sharp following his return from the Africa Cup of Nations.

Nevertheless, City still has much to prove. They have not won consecutively in the league since the end of December. Consistency remains the biggest problem. This is closely related to the performance of their star striker, Haaland, who has not scored from open play since the beginning of the year. Haaland's two goals in the league this year have come from penalty kicks.

Regardless of what City does, the championship destiny still lies in Arsenal's hands. "The Gunners" only need 11 more victories in the remaining schedule to secure the championship title. This number could decrease if City drops points. With Arsenal's impressive record so far (17 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses), the predictions from Opta Analyst are very reasonable.

Arsenal's squad depth and quality are unquestionable this season. The question lies more in the mentality of Mikel Arteta's team. They will be haunted by consecutive failures in the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Declan Rice and his teammates have only been champions' companions, finishing runners-up since the 2022-23 season.

According to Arteta, they have learned a lot from previous seasons. They just want to focus on themselves, forgetting the pressure from competitors. "We still have to win many matches to achieve what we want. So there is no focus on anything else. We just need to continue to develop and prepare for the next match," he said.

Arteta's words may sound cliché, but the mentality within the "Gunners" squad has truly changed. They consistently respond to defeats very well. Each time they lose, they immediately create a positive streak. For instance, after their recent loss to Manchester United, Arsenal managed to win four consecutive matches across all competitions.

The competition between Arsenal and City for the remainder of the season remains very intriguing. This is because both teams are set to meet at the Etihad Stadium in mid-April. If City can narrow the gap to just three points before that match, they have the potential to dethrone Arsenal from the top of the standings. Furthermore, after that match, the league will have only five weeks left.

Therefore, both Arsenal and City must maintain their momentum ahead of the final-like duel. Arsenal needs to extend their points advantage, while City must narrow the gap. The next three weeks will be very crucial. They will take turns playing first and will have the advantage of the number of matches.

City will play first when hosting Fulham at the Etihad Stadium on Thursday early morning WIB. They could narrow the gap to just three points. Arsenal will only visit Brentford's home ground on Friday early morning. Interestingly, Arsenal will play three matches until the end of next weekend, while City will only face two matches.

If they can pass all those matches with victories, Arsenal could lead by at least nine points by the end of next weekend. However, "The Gunners" are faced with a tough challenge. They must confront three consecutive away matches, against Brentford, Wolverhampton Wanderers, and their eternal rivals Tottenham Hotspur.

As a result, the competition for the championship title this season is still very long and winding. There are many twists and turns each week that could serve as a turning point for Arsenal and City. The best part of the rivalry between the two teams is just about to begin. (AP/REUTERS)