Early Scenario for Liverpool to Win the Premier League, One Step Ahead of Manchester United

The scent of celebration is beginning to waft through Anfield, the home of the elite English football club, Liverpool. Entering week 33, Liverpool firmly sits at the top of the Premier League standings. With 76 points, The Reds, as Liverpool is nicknamed, are increasingly unassailable. Their closest competitor, Arsenal, in second place, trails by 13 points with a total of 63 points.

The remaining teams can no longer catch up with Liverpool's points. In third place, Nottingham Forest has accumulated 57 points. Meanwhile, Newcastle is in fourth place with 56 points.

Next weekend, the Premier League will enter its 33rd week. This means that there are only six matches remaining until the end of the season. The maximum points that each team can collect is 18 points. This is what makes Arsenal the only team still capable of chasing Liverpool, although it would require a miracle.

In the 33rd week or on Sunday (20/4/2025) night, Liverpool could potentially secure the title of English Premier League champions this season. This first scenario could occur under certain conditions. First, Liverpool must win when visiting Leicester's home ground. However, in the same week, Arsenal must lose when visiting Ipswich's home ground.

Regardless of the score, if the two conditions mentioned above occur, Liverpool can already celebrate their championship party. This is because Liverpool's points will reach 79, while Arsenal will remain at 63 points. With a 16-point difference and five matches remaining, it is impossible for The Reds' points to be matched, let alone surpassed.

If the above conditions are not met, Liverpool's championship celebration must be postponed. For instance, if both Liverpool and Arsenal win, then The Reds have not yet secured their victory.

The point difference between the two will remain at 13 points. With five matches remaining, Liverpool's position is still within reach. Similarly, when Arsenal draws while Liverpool wins, The Reds must still postpone their celebration as the point difference remains at 15, which is still within the maximum point chase in the remaining five matches.

If this happens, the championship title must be postponed until the 34th week, with the condition that a victory must be secured. However, this quick scenario will take longer if Liverpool ends up losing points next week. This means that a victory is essential for Liverpool to achieve this weekend.

The positive performance of Liverpool this season is reflected in the match statistics of The Reds thus far. In terms of probability, Liverpool is the most convincing compared to its competitors.

As of week 32, Liverpool has secured 23 victories. This means that the probability of The Reds winning so far stands at 71.9%. When looking at their points tally, the probability of Liverpool achieving full points is 79.2 percent.

This figure is significantly lower even when compared to Arsenal as the closest competitor. Until week 32, Arsenal's probability of winning stands at 53.1 percent. This means that out of 10 matches, the likelihood of victory for The Gunners is 5 or 6 matches.

Furthermore, in the next ranking, the probability of Nottingham Forest achieving the maximum points is 59.4 percent compared to 58.3 percent for Newcastle United, which is in fourth place.

The probability of victory and championship for Liverpool this season could be surprising. At the end of the 2023/2024 season, Liverpool will part ways with one of its greatest coaches in history, Jurgen Klopp. Arne Slot will come in as his replacement.

At the beginning of his coaching season, Arne's position was not very comfortable. Two Liverpool players, Joel Matip and Thiago Alcantara, decided to retire. In the midst of this situation, Arne Slot was not provided with a substantial budget for player acquisitions.

At the beginning of the season, The Reds only brought in Giogi Mamardashvili, a goalkeeper from Georgia, and Federick Chiesa, a former midfielder of Juventus. These two players have yet to demonstrate significant impact.

In practice, the squad inherited from Klopp must be orchestrated by Arne. As a result, Arne has addressed all doubts. Even in November 2024, approximately four months into his management of Liverpool, he achieved 14 victories out of 16 matches across all competitions.

Liverpool's impressive performance in the English Premier League cannot be separated from their powerful driving force on the field, Mohamed Salah. As of week 32, Salah has scored 27 goals, making him the current top scorer. This statistic indicates that Salah has an average scoring rate of 0.84 goals per week.

His rival in recent seasons, Erling Haaland, scored 21 goals, or 0.65 per week. Not only is he the goal king, Salah is also the assist king. In week 32, he recorded 18 passes that were converted into goals.

Mohamed Salah has become a legend at Liverpool as he has been a key player this season. Furthermore, the Egyptian player embodies the intelligence of Liverpool's management. The Reds have successfully convinced their key players to extend their contracts.

Not only Mohamed Salah, but there are also names such as Virgil van Dijk, Luis Diaz, Alisson, Trent Alexander-Arnold, and Diogo Jota. Liverpool has become one of the remaining major teams that maintains a strong bond with its key players, which continues to prove effective in building the team's strength.

Currently, the phenomenon of player contracts in modern football tends to be more opportunistic and pragmatic. This means that the calculations of more enticing contract values may be more important than mere loyalty.

Liverpool is on the verge of winning its 20th English Premier League title. This number will equal the English league trophies previously lifted by Manchester United. For other teams, it seems they must concede to Liverpool's dominance in England this season, even without needing to wait until the 38th match. (LITBANG KOMPAS)