Without Imports, Potential Rice Stocks in 2025 Could Reach 9.97 Million Tons

JAKARTA, KOMPAS – Even without rice imports, the potential national rice stock by the end of 2025 could reach 9.97 million tons. The condition is that this year's national rice production target must truly be realized.

In 2025, the government is committed to stopping the import of rice, feed corn, as well as consumption sugar and salt. Specifically for rice, the Ministry of Agriculture (Kementan) targets national rice production to reach 32.83 million tons.

Deputy for Food Availability and Stabilization of the National Food Agency (Bapanas) I Gusti Ketut Astawa, on Monday (3/2/2025), stated that even without rice imports, the national rice needs in 2025 can be met. Referring to the National Food Balance Projection for 2025, the rice stock at the end of 2024, which will be used as the initial stock for 2025, amounts to 8.14 million tons.

Domestic rice production is estimated at 32.29 million tons, with plans to import 514,305 tons of special rice. With the rice demand throughout 2025 amounting to 30.97 million tons, the rice stock at the end of 2025 is projected to have a surplus of 9.97 million tons.

"A rice surplus at the end of the year can be realized if this year's national rice production target is truly achieved," he said at the National Seminar on Agricultural Outlook 2025 and the Book Launch: "Transformation of the Food and Agriculture System" organized by the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) and the Indonesian Agricultural Economics Association (Perhepi) in Jakarta.

A rice surplus at the end of the year can be realized if this year's national rice production target can actually be achieved.

According to Ketut, Bapanas is striving to boost rice production by raising the government purchase price (HPP) of harvested dry unhusked rice (GKP) at the farmer level to Rp 6,500 per kilogram. By increasing the HPP of unhusked rice, farmers will be more enthusiastic about planting rice.

On the other hand, Bapanas will also mitigate the risk of halting rice imports. One of the measures is by requesting Perum Bulog to absorb 3 million tons of rice equivalent to strengthen the government's rice reserves (CBP).

CBP is needed for the Food Supply and Price Stabilization Program (SPHP). In addition, CBP will also be used for rice assistance for 16 million low-income families.

"However, the government will temporarily halt the SPHP program and rice assistance throughout the rice harvest season from February to April 2025. This is to prevent the price of farmers' unhusked rice from falling," said Ketut.

Head of the Working Team for Guidance and Supervision of Seed Certification of the Directorate General of Food Crops, Ministry of Agriculture, Happy Suryati, said that the Ministry of Agriculture is targeting to produce 32.83 million tons of rice in 2025. This target will be achieved, among others, through optimizing agricultural and plantation land, creating new rice fields, and building and improving irrigation networks.

For new rice fields, for example, the target is 225,000 hectares with a GKP production target of 0.79 million tons or equivalent to 0.47 million tons of rice. This is being done by opening swampy areas in several regions in Indonesia.

"In addition, we also work with the Ministry of Public Works and the River Basin Office. The effort is in the context of building and repairing irrigation networks, as well as anticipating floods and droughts," he said.

In 2025, the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Public Works are targeting to build and repair 300,000 hectares of rice fields. The productivity and production of GKP in these rice fields are targeted at 5.25 tons per hectare and 1.57 million tons or equivalent to 0.95 million tons of rice, respectively.

Perhepi General Chairman Bustanul Arifin assessed that with various efforts, the government can increase national rice production. However, the government still needs to anticipate a number of challenges, including the impact of climate change, price fluctuations, and declining rice productivity.

Rice productivity, for example, has fallen from 5.28 tons per hectare in 2023 to 5.25 tons per hectare in 2024. The decline in productivity should not only be seen from the impact of climate change, but also from the condition of agricultural land in Indonesia.

"Most of the agricultural land in Indonesia is sick, because of the excessive use of chemical fertilizers. Therefore, the land now needs to be healed," he said.

On the same occasion, the National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas) outlined a number of challenges and targets for food self-sufficiency. The challenges and targets are outlined in the 2025-2029 National Medium-Term Development Plan (RPJMN).

There are seven challenges to realizing food self-sufficiency. First, increasing food production to fulfill the Free Nutritious Meal program. Second, stagnation of food production. Rice, for example, average production fell by around 1.1 percent in 2019-2023.

Third, the high dependence on food imports, such as rice and salt, which will reach 3.1 million tons and 2.8 million tons respectively in 2023. Fourth, there are still food vulnerable areas, namely around 16 percent of the total districts/cities in Indonesia.

Fifth, the conversion of agricultural land reaching around 80,000 hectares in 2029-2024. Sixth, the decline in quality or degradation of agricultural land covering around 89.5 percent of the total agricultural land in Indonesia.

Seventh, the age of upstream food producers is getting older. In 2023, around 70 percent of farmers and fishermen in Indonesia will be over 43 years old.

Director of Food and Agriculture of Bappenas Jarot Indarto said, in the 2025-2029 RPJMN, food self-sufficiency does not only target increased production and reduced food imports. However, there are a number of other elements that are the measure of the achievement of the program.

Farmers' welfare, for example. The farmer's exchange rate targeted at 115-120 in 2025 is expected to increase to 119-120 in 2029. The agricultural sector's gross domestic product (GDP) growth targeted at 2.2 percent in 2025 must also increase to 3.46 percent in 2029.

"In addition, the food security index targeted at 73.2 in 2025 must also increase to 82 in 2029," he said.