Trump Tariffs and RI's "Blunder"

When the President of the United States, Donald Trump, declared the U.S. "Liberation Day" on April 2, 2025, Indonesia could only gape in astonishment. The Republic of Indonesia did not promptly respond, let alone anticipate it. How could it, when the position of Indonesia's ambassador to the U.S. has been vacant for nearly the past two years?

In fact, Trump has repeatedly touted the "Day of Liberation" for the U.S. since his campaign period. Upon being inaugurated as U.S. President on January 20, 2025, Trump also proclaimed the day of reciprocal tariffs imposed on U.S. trading partners.

Even about a week before the launch of "Liberation Day," U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned that Washington already had a list of the "Dirty 15." The term refers to countries contributing the largest deficits to the U.S. trade balance.

Bessent even stated that the U.S. "Liberation Day" would be declared by Trump on April 2, 2025. At the same time, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) has also compiled a list of 21 countries to be targeted by the U.S., including Indonesia.

However, Indonesia has been less responsive to those signals. Perhaps overly confident that the United States would not target Indonesia, the Indonesian government has not promptly assigned officials to represent Indonesia in the United States.

The last time the "throne" of Indonesia's representation in the United States was occupied by Rosan Roeslani. He served as Indonesia's Ambassador to the United States from October 25, 2021, to July 17, 2023, during Joko Widodo's administration. Subsequently, Rosan was inaugurated by Jokowi as Deputy Minister of State-Owned Enterprises on July 17, 2023, and later became Minister of Investment as well as Head of the Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) on August 17, 2024.

In the era of President Prabowo Subianto, Rosan joined the Merah Putih Cabinet. Prabowo inaugurated Rosan as the Minister of Investment and Downstreaming as well as the Head of BKPM on October 28, 2024.

Without the presence of its ambassador in the US, Indonesia is less intense in building trade diplomacy with the US.

To date, Indonesia does not have an Ambassador in the United States to replace Rosan. Even though Prabowo has inaugurated 31 Indonesian ambassadors for other countries on March 23, 2025, none of the 31 Indonesian ambassadors have been assigned to the United States.

It is not clear why the Indonesian government has vacated its representative "throne" in the US for almost the past two years. In fact, the US has been Indonesia's second largest trading partner, after China. In 2024, for example, the US contributed a non-oil and gas trade surplus of US$16.08 billion to Indonesia's total trade surplus with its trading partners of US$31.04 billion.

The empty “throne” of the Indonesian representative in the US is a “blunder” for Indonesia. Like football, Indonesia does not have a goalkeeper who can dampen US attacks and goals. Without the presence of its ambassador in the US, Indonesia is less intense in building trade diplomacy with the US.

Indonesia finally did not have a figure who was close and could lobby the US directly when Trump started to launch the US “Liberation Day”. About a week before Trump launched the reciprocal tariffs, Indonesia still did not have a “goalkeeper”.

The vacancy of the Indonesian representative "throne" in the US has also caused other homework to be neglected. One of them is related to the general preference system (GSP) or the provision of import duty reductions of up to zero percent for various Indonesian export commodities entering the US market.

In 2020, the US has indeed revoked the review policy and extended the GSP. However, until now, the US has not provided certainty regarding the legal status and time of the extension of the tariff privileges.

In fact, Indonesia had the opportunity to lobby the US intensively to determine the legal status and extension period of the tariff privilege. However, efforts to take advantage of the opportunity were not optimal because Indonesia did not place its ambassador in the US for almost two years.

Until Trump finally announced the reciprocal tariff, Indonesia was just planning to send a special delegation. However, even though the rice has become porridge, it does not mean that Indonesia no longer has the opportunity to lobby or negotiate with the US.

The Indonesian government must move quickly to appoint an ambassador to the US and form a special delegation to respond to Trump's reciprocal tariffs. Remember, the US will start enforcing the tariffs on April 9, 2025. This means that on and after that date, Indonesian products entering the US will be subject to a 32 percent import duty.

The tariff policy has already had an impact on delaying importer demand in the US. In Bandung, West Java, for example, the plan to export Wanoja Arabica coffee to the United States was temporarily suspended (Kompas, 4/4/2025). The Furniture and Craft Industry Association (HIMKI) also reported that there has been a suspension of demand for furniture imports from the US.

In negotiating with the US, Indonesia also needs to question the calculation of the US reciprocal tariff. The calculation of the tariff is considered by many to deviate from the application of fairness and fairness of the World Trade Organization (WTO) tariff, namely the most favored nation (MSN).

In addition, Indonesia also needs to adhere to Trump's "magic document", namely the 2025 National Trade Estimate (NTE) issued by the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR). In the report, USTR outlined various Indonesian policies that are considered detrimental to the US.

The policy is not only about tariffs, but also non-tariffs. The US considers the issuance of import approvals (PI) in Indonesia quite complicated because it must go through a number of ministries/institutions. Regarding food imports, for example, the issuance of PI requires recommendations from related ministries and must be based on the commodity balance to determine the import quota.

In fact, the US also said that Indonesia imposed restrictions on the import of feed corn by limiting the import rights of Perum Bulog. The US also highlighted the provision of interest subsidies for loans to micro, small, and medium enterprises.

The US also questioned a number of technical barriers to trade (TBT) in Indonesia. For example, regarding the complexity of meeting the domestic content level (TKDN) and halal certification requirements in Indonesia (Kompas, 3/4/2025).

In fact, the US also practices tariff and non-tariff policies on Indonesia. In fact, the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) noted that the US's non-tariff policies are actually more numerous than Indonesia's non-tariff policies.

This is indicated by the number of TBTs and sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) policies. These barriers usually come in the form of labeling policies, certification, and product standards, as well as health and environmental protection. By 2024, the US had implemented 495 TBTs and SPSs, while Indonesia only had 32 TBTs and SPSs.

The Indonesian government is indeed planning to take a diplomatic path to respond to the imposition of US reciprocal tariffs. The government has also prepared a number of steps to address various issues raised by the US in the 2025 NTE.

One of them is deregulating or simplifying and eliminating regulations that hinder trade, especially related to non-tariff policies. In this deregulation step, the Indonesian government needs to be careful so that there are no other "blunders" that harm the domestic industry.

Let's wait for the government's action and strategy. Will it just be "yes, sir" to Trump or will it continue to fight for justice for the national interest?