Puzzle at Roland Garros

For the first time in the last four years, Iga Swiatek is not the top seed in the women's singles competition of the French Open Grand Slam. Although being the top seed does not guarantee that the holder will win the championship, Swiatek is indeed not the favorite to win, despite having been the best women's singles player on the clay courts of Roland Garros, Paris, France, four times.

After making a surprise by winning the 2020 French Open without being seeded, Swiatek emerged as the best women's singles player on clay courts. Although she failed to defend her title after being eliminated in the quarterfinals in 2021, she arrived at Roland Garros as the world number one and the top seed for the next three years. This reputation was reinforced by bringing home the Suzanne Lenglen trophy, a symbol of supremacy for the women's singles champion of the French Open, in 2022, 2023, and 2024.

Out of a total of 21 matches over those three years, Swiatek only lost three sets. She recorded six "bagel" scores (6-0 in one set) and achieved "double bagel" scores (6-0, 6-0) twice.

Among other top tennis players in the world, no one can match Swiatek's 95 percent win rate at Roland Garros and 87 percent on clay courts. The world number one, who is the top seed at the 2025 French Open, Aryna Sabalenka, only has a 70 percent win rate at Roland Garros, with her best result being a semifinal appearance in 2023.

Jasmine Paolini, who was defeated by Swiatek in the 2024 final and is seeded fourth, has a winning percentage of only 60 percent. The third seed, Jessica Pegula, performs slightly better than Paolini, with a winning percentage of 62 percent.

The tennis player closest to Swiatek in winning matches at Roland Garros is Cori “Coco” Gauff, who is the second seed. Coco reached the final of the French Open in 2022 and the semifinals in 2024, as well as the quarterfinals in 2021 and 2023.

The figures demonstrate Swiatek's dominance in the premier tournament within the competition on clay courts. She is able to move very comfortably on the smooth surface made from crushed bricks on the top layer.

With the ball bouncing slowly and high, making the clay court characterized as slow, Swiatek can be patient in engaging in rallies. Her game is highly tactical in earning point after point, a skill that is indeed required from players when competing on clay courts that rarely "give" quick or free points through serves.

However, such a playing style was not evident in the 2025 competition season. From the beginning of the season until just before the French Open, May 25-June 8, Swiatek failed to defend her title four times, including in two WTA 1000 clay tournaments in Madrid and Rome. At the WTA Rome, the last tournament before the French Open, she was eliminated in the third round, marking her worst result of the year.

The series of results has caused Swiatek to drop out of the top two rankings in the world for the first time since March 2022. She arrived at Roland Garros as the fifth-ranked player in the world and the fifth seed.

Since being eliminated in Rome and during the "media day" event at Roland Garros on Friday (23/5/2025), Swiatek stated that she does not have high expectations for this year's French Open. Nevertheless, she continues to use the one-week break before competing at Roland Garros to turn negative aspects into positive ones.

"After Rome, I had time to think about my playing style and attitude on the court. I tried to change a few things. After making mistakes, for instance, I was too focused on thinking about it, whereas it is okay not to be perfect," said Swiatek on the official Roland Garros website.

Not only the degradation of performance and mindset, Swiatek's journey at the 2025 French Open will be very challenging considering the potential opponents. She is in the top half of the draw, just like Sabalenka, which opens up the possibility of a meeting between the two in the semifinals. This encounter could occur if Swiatek can defeat Paolini again, who is likely to be her opponent in the quarterfinals this time.

However, before those opportunities arise, Swiatek will face significant challenges from the outset. If she has the chance to meet Emma Raducanu in the second round, followed by Elena Rybakina or Jelena Ostapenko in the third round.

Ostapenko, despite being only the 21st seed, is a player who consistently hinders Swiatek. Swiatek has always lost in six encounters, whether on hard courts, grass, or clay courts. Most recently, she was eliminated by Ostapenko in one of the warm-up tournaments for the French Open, the quarterfinals of the WTA Stuttgart.

Therefore, the track record without a championship title prior to the French Open and the statistics of encounters with potential opponents indeed justify the notion that it would be excessive for Swiatek to have high expectations at Roland Garros 2025. Being able to reach the second week, which means winning the first three rounds, seems to be a fairly realistic target for the holder of five Grand Slam titles.

Swiatek's condition, undoubtedly, opens the door wider for other tennis players to win, including Ostapenko, who experienced being the champion of the French Open in 2017. She will compete with the advantage of the WTA 500 Stuttgart title after eliminating Swiatek in the quarter-finals and defeating Sabalenka in the final.

Sabalenka also brought home the championship title from the clay tournament prior to arriving at Roland Garros, specifically from the WTA 1000 Madrid. This marks her third title in Madrid after 2021 and 2023.

"Coming here, I know I can play well on clay courts. I feel fit and very enthusiastic. I hope this year I can achieve results that make me proud on clay," said Sabalenka.

The three-time Grand Slam champion will open the match on Court Philippe Chatrier on the first day against Kamila Rakhimova. She has the opportunity to face Danielle Collins or Leylah Fernandez in the third round, and then Zheng Qin Wen in the quarterfinals.

In addition to Sabalenka, Coco deserves to be placed as a favorite for the championship, especially since she has a record of 11 wins and three losses in three clay tournaments prior to the French Open. This statistic led her to the finals in two consecutive WTA 1000 tournaments, namely in Madrid and Rome. She even achieved a decisive victory over Swiatek in the WTA Madrid semifinals with a score of 6-1, 6-1.

"The competition is quite open. I hope to be one of the tennis players who can take advantage of this opportunity, but there are Jasmine, Aryna, Iga, Qin Wen, Mirra Andreeva, and other players who also have that chance," said Coco.

As Swiatek's performance declines, it opens opportunities for many female singles players, while the men's singles competition is primarily focused on two players: the defending champion, Carlos Alcaraz, and the world number one, Jannik Sinner. Other players seem to have a mission to stop these two athletes.

Although starting the 2025 competition season with some struggles on hard courts, Alcaraz has become the most consistent player as the competition unfolds on clay courts. He arrives at Roland Garros with two ATP Masters 1000 titles, namely in Monte Carlo and Rome. In the final of the Rome Masters, Alcaraz triumphed over Sinner, the local hero, in a high-level match.

Alcaraz achieved his best results leading up to the French Open compared to previous years. However, he believes that the competition for the championship is wide open for anyone.

"Generally, tennis players ranked in the top 30 in the world possess abilities at a very high level. Therefore, any player can achieve good results, even becoming a champion," he stated.

Two titles from the Masters 1000 before the French Open have further led tennis fans to compare Alcaraz with his senior, Rafael Nadal, who will not appear at Roland Garros for the first time after retiring in November 2024.

Nevertheless, Nadal will attend the tribute event organized by the tournament committee after the first three matches of the opening day at the Philippe Chatrier court. The event is held a year after Nadal last appeared at the French Open when he lost to Alexander Zverev in the first round. At that time, the committee, led by tournament director Amelie Mauresmo, had actually prepared an event for Nadal, but the owner of 14 French Open titles declined it.

Without Nadal, Spain has Alcaraz. At the age of 22, Alcaraz is no stranger to the situation of defending a Grand Slam title. He accomplished this when he won Wimbledon 2024, repeating the same achievement from the previous year. In both finals, Alcaraz defeated Novak Djokovic, the holder of seven Wimbledon titles.

Sinner did not have much time to participate in warm-up tournaments due to a three-month suspension since February for doping. Nevertheless, he was able to adapt quite well when returning to competition at the Rome Masters, reaching the final.

His position at the top of the world rankings remains unshaken even though he was absent from the tournament. Zverev, as the player with the greatest chance to replace Sinner at the top position, was unable to do so. Before winning the ATP 500 in Munich, his farthest journey in six tournaments during Sinner's absence was the quarter-finals.

Djokovic, who just turned 38 on May 22, will participate in the French Open for the 21st time since his debut in 2005. He will be overshadowed by Alcaraz and Sinner, as has been the case since 2024.

After the Australian Open semifinals, Djokovic has struggled to reach his best performance. He suffered three consecutive defeats, namely in the Australian Open semifinals, the first round of ATP Doha, and the second round of Indian Wells Masters. The same moment repeated itself when he lost in the Miami Masters final, followed by defeats in the second rounds of Monte Carlo and Madrid Masters.

With this series of results, Djokovic skipped the Rome Masters and chose to participate in the lower-level tournament, ATP 250 Geneva, from May 18 to 24. In line with the saying "being in the right place at the right time," Djokovic found the moment to rebuild his shattered confidence. He won the ATP Geneva, marking his 100th title in professional competition since 2003.

The result has sparked hope for the three-time French Open champion. Djokovic could also become one of the players capable of fulfilling the mission to stop Sinner or Alcaraz, although it is challenging.