The Russia-Ukraine Peace Puzzle

Peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have been fluctuating. For now, the results could disadvantage Ukraine. Various parties are seeking a share of Ukraine's wealth and territory.

On Thursday (4/4/2025), United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Russia's seriousness about the ceasefire would be seen in the next week. "In the end, it will be clear whether you (Russia) want peace or you don't want peace," he said on the sidelines of a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Brussels, Belgium.

He made the remarks as Russia and Ukraine continued to exchange attacks. On Friday night, Russia bombed Kryvyi Rih, the hometown of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The attack, Kyiv said, killed 19 people and injured 68 Ukrainians.

The attack also raises doubts among various parties about Russia's seriousness in achieving peace in the Ukraine war. "The attack targeted residential buildings, playgrounds," said Zelenskyy.

Russia was also reported to have attacked a power plant in Kherson. "The attack could not have been accidental. Russia knows it is an energy facility. This is the type of facility that must be protected from any attack, in accordance with Russia's promise to America," Zelenskyy continued.

Meanwhile, Russia has said that the attack in Kryvyi Rih targeted a meeting of Ukrainian commanders and foreign military representatives. The Russian Defense Ministry said that 85 Ukrainian and foreign soldiers were killed in the attack.

The attack was carried out close to the time of Kirill Dmitriev's visit, the Special Envoy of Russian President Vladimir Putin, to the United States. Rubio was one of the individuals Dmitriev met. Apparently, the United States secretly lifted sanctions on Dmitriev.

The CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) has been banned from entering the U.S. or conducting transactions with U.S. individuals and companies. The lifting of sanctions allows Dmitriev to enter the U.S. this week and meet with various parties.

It comes shortly after US President Donald Trump became angry with Putin. In interviews with several media outlets, Trump was impatient with Putin about the discussion of the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire.

In late March 2025, Russia put forward a number of additional conditions. To date, a limited ceasefire has not been implemented.

One of Putin's reasons regarding the ceasefire is the uncertainty about whether Ukraine will comply. According to Putin, Ukraine currently lacks a definitive leader. Zelenskyy's term has ended, and elections have not yet been held.

Trump had actually raised the issue of Zelenskyy's legitimacy. When Putin brought it up, he was furious.

For Trump, Putin's question is tantamount to an obstacle to the ceasefire. "If Russia and I cannot agree on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it is Russia's fault, I will impose additional tariffs on oil, all oil coming out of Russia," he stated.

The outburst was unusual for Trump, who since his re-election as US president has been friendlier to Russia than to Ukraine. He has even called Putin misunderstood.

Dmitriev's visit was to calm Trump's anger. "I think there is an understanding about how we can get a deal done. There are a lot of discussions on the conditions, there are still many differences. But part of it is to discuss those issues and only a diplomatic solution is possible," said Dmitriev, a Kyiv-born banker who became a Russian citizen when the Soviet Union broke up.

As head of RDIF, the Russian government investment fund, Dmitriev was among those sanctioned by the US after Russia invaded Ukraine. According to Putin, 28,965 Russian individuals and companies were sanctioned. No other country, Putin said, was subject to as many sanctions as Russia.

Fortunately, Russia was not on the list of recipients of the import tariffs announced by Trump last Tuesday. Trump argued that Russia does not trade much with the US. In addition, sanctions on Russia are already too many.

That reason could be interpreted as Trump giving Russia a breath of fresh air. A kind of incentive for Russia to agree on Ukraine.

Dmitriev also said that the limited ceasefire was the best breath of fresh air since the war began. Russia and Ukraine have agreed to stop targeting energy infrastructure. However, as happened on Friday this week, attacks on each other continue.

According to Dmitriev, there was progress during his visit to the US. Apart from Rubio, he also met Steve Witkoff. Witkoff's main task is actually the US President's Special Envoy for the Middle East. However, he was also the US negotiator on Ukraine-Russia affairs. Witkoff was a member of the US delegation to the US-Russia negotiations in Saudi Arabia in February 2025.

Republican Senators Lindsey Graham and Markwayne Mullin also met with Dmitriev. Graham is one of Trump's top supporters in the US Senate.

According to Dmitriev, the US and Russia are trying hard to bring about peace in Ukraine. However, there are parties who do not want the Ukrainian war to end.

Regarding Dmitriev's visit, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov asked everyone to be patient until the banker returns. "There is cautious optimism. There is still a long way to go, including through various channels," he said.

Dmitriev was accepted by Putin and Trump through Trump and Putin's children. He became a financial advisor at a firm run by Putin's daughter, Katerina Tikhonova. He also had contacts in the circle of Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law.

It was all possible because Dmitriev, a Kyiv-born, US-schooled banker with a long career in the financial industry, returned to Russia in the early days of Putin's rise to power.

Dmitriev's visit also discussed strengthening US-Russian relations. The relationship is considered to have deteriorated significantly during the Joe Biden administration. "One of the topics of restoring US-Russian relations, the dialogue was stopped and paused during the Joe Biden administration," Dmitriev said.

The discussions included a partnership around the Arctic, the use of rare earth metals and the reopening of US-Russian airspace for airlines from both countries. “We are not asking for the lifting of any sanctions. We are just discussing if America wants to do more business with Russia, the US can do that,” Dmitriev told CNN.

Since the Ukrainian war broke out, the US and Russia have been banning each other's airspace access. The impact is more detrimental to US airlines. Because, US planes have to fly further after being banned from passing through Russian skies. Operational costs are more expensive.

In terms of Arctic cooperation, Russia is actually being cautious. A few days before Dmitriev's visit, Putin showed off a number of submarines specifically designed to operate in the Arctic. The exhibition showed that Russia is ready to face anyone to defend its rights in the Arctic.

On the issue of Ukrainian peace, Russia has repeatedly put forward the condition of not giving up any more occupied territory. Currently, at least 20 percent of Ukraine is controlled by Russia.

The occupation was part of a concession, aka sharing out Ukraine's territory and wealth. Apparently, a number of other parties also wanted to get concessions from Ukraine.

Polish Agriculture and Rural Minister Michal Kolodziejczak said Poland should take control of the port of Odessa. It provides access to the Black Sea. "Why don't we talk to Ukraine about selling or leasing it (the port of Odessa) for 50 years so that Poland has its own grain export port," he told Polish media outlet Polsat News.

According to him, the European Union would also benefit if Poland controlled part of the port of Odessa. "It would secure access to the Black Sea," he said.

Meanwhile, the European Parliament has highlighted the control of US companies over Ukrainian fields. According to Barbara Bonte, US companies such as Cargill, ADM, Blackrock, Oaktree Capital Management and Bunge Limited control thousands of hectares of wheat and other commodities in Ukraine. For Bonte, a member of the European Parliament, the EU must take action.

In talks with Ukraine, the US also discussed full control over the exploitation of minerals there. When Zelenskyy asked for a better deal, Trump and US Vice President JD Vance accused him of being ungrateful.

The US stance is seen by some in Europe as pressure on Ukraine. Therefore, Europe is trying to show its commitment to continue strengthening Ukraine in the face of Russia. For Europe, Ukraine's victory will dampen Russia's ambition to dominate Europe.

Europe's stance has Russia and the US accusing Europe of continuing to fuel the war and victimizing the Ukrainian people. (AP/AFP)