Three Iranian Interests Disturbed by Shahid Rajaei Port Blast

BANDAR ABBAS, MONDAY - Iran's interests have been disrupted due to an explosion that resulted in a massive fire at Shahid Rajaei Port, Bandar Abbas, Iran, on Saturday (26/4/2025). The incident at this strategic naval base could impact Tehran's economic and security aspects, particularly oil exports, government credibility, and nuclear negotiations.

Shahid Rajaei Port is located on the northern coast of the Strait of Hormuz, where the Persian Gulf meets the Gulf of Oman. As one of the world's main oil and natural gas trade routes, this port is Iran's largest and most strategic asset.

According to The National newspaper in the United Arab Emirates, Monday (4/28/2025), the Ports and Maritime Organization (PMO) noted that the port handles 85 percent of Iran's container traffic. The port location is also passed by 20 percent of international oil trade.

"The Shahid Rajaei Port is the largest and most important maritime hub in Iran, often referred to as the 'Golden Gate' of Iranian trade. This port is connected to 80 major international ports through 35 top container shipping routes," said Alex Vatanka, a senior researcher at the Middle East Institute, Washington, United States.

Built in 2005, The New Arab reported, Shahid Rajaei Port stands on an area of 4,800 hectares. The port's capacity to handle 100 million tons of cargo per year.

An explosion at the port occurred while delegations from Iran and the United States were meeting in Oman. Both parties discussed Iran's nuclear program on Saturday (26/4/2025). At the same time, tensions between Iran and Israel were escalating.

The cause of the explosion is still under investigation. The death toll from the explosion has risen to 46 people. Most of the 1,000 injured victims have been discharged from the hospital. In addition, the explosion damaged port infrastructure, office buildings, and storage warehouses.

Port operations have largely come to a halt. However, Iran's Minister of Interior Eskandar Momeni stated on Sunday (27/4/2025) that some container loading and customs activities have continued in less affected areas.

The explosion incident could have a negative impact on the Iranian economy, particularly on regional trade routes. Moreover, the Iranian economy is currently burdened by economic sanctions from the United States, including those that restrict oil exports.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Iran's economic growth will stagnate at 0.3 percent in 2025, a decrease of 3.5 percent from 2024.

"The explosion at Shahid Rajaei Port – Iran's largest commercial port – will have a direct and severe impact on Iran's economy. Its closure disrupts the flow of goods, deepening Iran's economic isolation," said Dean Mikkelsen, an independent maritime, energy, and security analyst.

Mikkelsen explained that the port also supports oil exports, particularly the "ghost fleet." This refers to a network of ships that discreetly sell Iranian oil to other countries by disabling the Automatic Identification System (AIS) and conducting ship-to-ship transfers.

The Iranian government can obtain approximately 50 billion to 55 billion US dollars annually from oil exports. This revenue helps fund state operations and services as well as stabilize the economy.

According to Mikkelsen, any interruption, even temporary, threatens Iran's financial stability. "Prolonged closures will force Iran to reroute trade through smaller and less efficient ports, thereby increasing costs and risking further congestion," he stated.

As the third-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Iran extracts approximately 3.3 million barrels of oil per day (bpd). This figure accounts for 3 percent of global production.

Regional trade could also be affected. Mikkelsen opines that some ships may change their routes to safer ports in the United Arab Emirates or Saudi Arabia, but this is time-consuming and costly. Ultimately, the increase in costs could impact various industries.

For the time being, Iranian authorities are treating the explosion as an accident. An Iranian official stated on Saturday (26/4/2025) that the explosion was likely triggered by a container containing chemicals, without providing further details.

A source with ties to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps told The New York Times that the explosive was sodium perchlorate, a chemical that is a key ingredient in making solid propellant for missile launches.

Security firm Ambrey said there were indications that the explosion was caused by improper storage of sodium perchlorate at the port. The Financial Times reported in January 2025 that China had shipped the chemical to Iran. Iran reportedly ran out of stock last year after launching missiles at Israel.

Other experts argue that more common chemicals may be the cause of the large explosion, such as ammonium nitrate for fertilizers and industrial explosives. However, the spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Defense, General Reza Talaeinik, on Sunday (27/4/2025), denied reports that missile fuel had been imported through that port.

Mahdi Ghodsi, an economist at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, stated that the significance of the incident along with the casualties is very important. "Any evidence related to the initial cause is crucial at this sensitive moment, coinciding with the third round of negotiations between Iran and the United States," Ghodsi remarked.

Ghodsi continued, if the incident was unintentional, the poor effectiveness of the government and the political system will come under scrutiny. This is because both are deemed incapable of providing the necessary security.

"Or, if this incident involves foreign intervention, it could exacerbate tensions and derail negotiations by shifting the focus from nuclear issues to regional issues, thereby jeopardizing discussions that are solely intended to address nuclear matters," said Ghodsi.

Speculation about foreign attacks arises from history. In 2020, Israel launched a cyberattack that disrupted operations at Shahid Rajaei Port. However, the Iranian Attorney General denied Israel's involvement by condemning "online activities" that spread rumors, thereby undermining the psychological security of the community. (AP)