Ukraine Tragedy and Europe's Trauma Facing Trump-Putin Scenario

A nightmare for an independent and sovereign nation is when their future is not determined by their own people, but by others. Moreover, the individuals who now claim to have the authority to determine the fate of a nation are the head of state who invaded them and the head of state who was supposed to assist them.

That's roughly what happened to Ukraine. Monday (24/2/2025) marks exactly three years since the Eastern European country was invaded by Russia. One of the reasons was Moscow's rejection of Kyiv's desire to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Russia is worried that more and more former Soviet countries are joining NATO. In total, there are 14 former Soviet and Soviet-affiliated countries that are now part of NATO. Some of them are Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Estonia, Slovenia, Albania, and Romania.

When Ukraine expressed similar wishes, Moscow's concerns turned into decisions. As Russian Ambassador to Indonesia Lyudmila Vorobieva explained in an interview with Kompas on June 15, 2023, Russia took the initiative to carry out military operations to protect its interests, while also eradicating pro-Nazi ideology circulating in Ukraine.

Russia calls it a military operation, but in the perception of Ukraine and the world, it is an invasion. In reality, the operation was carried out against an independent and sovereign country without the consent of its government and citizens.

The United States during the administration of President Joe Biden (2021-2025) has disbursed funds of 60 billion US dollars to help with weapons and logistics in Ukraine. Together with the European Union (EU), the US is the largest supporter of the costs of the war taking place on Ukrainian soil.

Like the US, a number of EU countries have sent arms to Ukraine. They have also sent medical aid, daily logistics, and non-weapon military equipment. Without the help of the US and EU, Ukraine would not have survived this long.

The commitment held by the US and Ukraine is to put Ukraine's interests first in every process related to the war. There can be no peace talks on the fate of Ukraine without Ukraine as the determinant of its own fate.

That is why since 2023 various offers of peace talks have been rejected by Ukraine, the US and the EU. In that year, China was the first to propose peace talks.

Beijing's mediation offer did not include the inclusion of five Russian-occupied Ukrainian regions: the Crimean Peninsula, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv.

The Crimean peninsula has a mixed status. Ukraine considers it annexed by Russia in 2014. Moscow says the peninsula's citizens voted to join Russia in a referendum.

It should be noted that the referendum was not organized by the Ukrainian government as the internationally recognized authority in the region.

Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kharkiv are the four regions occupied by Russia at the end when open war broke out. When Beijing's offer was rejected by Ukraine, the EU and the US, Russia accused them of not showing good faith in ending the open conflict.

When Donald Trump was inaugurated as US president for the 2025-2029 term, there was hope that he could resolve the war in Ukraine. Moreover, Trump has a personal closeness with Russian President Vladimir Putin. It is estimated that Trump, who is also a businessman, can maneuver to realize negotiations by prioritizing Ukraine's interests.

Unexpectedly, Trump chose the most practical path. As long as the war is over, all of Putin's requirements are met, including the capitulation of Ukrainian territory. Trump also said that Kyiv owes Washington a debt of gratitude.

"I think it's fair that we (the US) ask Ukraine for $500 billion worth of rare earth metals concessions. After all, we are their biggest supporter," Trump said.

He also implied that it was still fortunate for Ukraine that he was willing to mediate the conflict. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who was initially warm to Trump, has practically rejected the US's desire for rare earth metals in his country.

Trump's opinion was immediately refuted by Ukraine and the EU. If they reject the risk of capitulation in 2023, they will not comply with conditions that clearly call for surrender of the territory in 2025.

"A good and lasting peace is a peace negotiated with justice," said Maciej Tumulec, Chargé d'Affaires of the Polish Embassy in Jakarta, Thursday (20/2/2025). Poland holds the rotating EU presidency for 2025.

However, Tumulec continued, Ukraine is a central party in this conflict. Their perceptions must be put forward in the ceasefire and peace talks. Capitulation as a way out of the conflict is no longer acceptable.

The EU has a war capitulation trauma. This happened in 1938 when British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain led negotiations in Munich, Germany. He agreed that the Sudetenland region of Czechoslovakia occupied by Nazi Germany was handed over to the Nazis in order for them to end the conflict.

As a result, the Munich Accords did not deter the Nazis. Instead, their leader, Adolf Hitler, became even more arrogant and ordered the invasion of Poland in 1939. This event dragged Europe and then the US and Asia into World War II.

Meanwhile, for Ukraine, it is not only their territory that must be returned. "Certainly, international law must be upheld. The invaders who carried out the invasion must be held accountable for their actions before the world," said the Charge d'Affaires of the Ukrainian Embassy in Jakarta, Yevhenia Shynkarenko.

In fact, the Ukrainian Center for Civil Liberties (CCL), a human rights organization that won the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize, stated that Russia and Ukraine should both be held accountable for this conflict. CCL conducted a balanced and unbiased investigation into human rights violations during the Ukrainian war. (Kompas.id, October 10, 2022)

White House National Security Adviser John Bolton, 2018-2019, said that following Russia's terms of surrender would be tantamount to surrender. Bolton, a Republican, was National Security Adviser during Trump's first term.

"This peace proposal from the US is as if it was written in the Kremlin," he told Politico on February 20, 2025.

Bolton criticized Trump, US Vice President JD Vance, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, saying they were not people who understood politics and foreign policy.

Therefore, in addition to strengthening NATO, Bolton proposed that Ukraine and European countries increase meetings with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and White House National Security Adviser Mike Waltz.

"They understand foreign policy and can 'whisper' to leaders. Rubio and Waltz are the last hope for peace talks," he said.